The Black Swan : The Impact of the High | Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday

'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent

A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected ― Guardian

Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling ― Financial Times

It has altered modern thinking ― The Times

Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot ― Sunday Times

The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works -- Daniel Kahneman, Author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow"

Great fun... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling -- Stephen J. Dubner, co-author of Freakonomics

The most prophetic voice of all ― GQ